January’s Thematic piece from the dozzi Investment Committee looks at turning point indicators for investment markets, including both a recession and recovery.
In a world where data is at your fingertips, what should we truly focus on to help make effective strategic decisions?
1. Turning IndicatorsIt seems every pet shop parrot expects there to be some sort of slowdown this year – the question is ‘how much?’ So far, there is little evidence. Consumer spending is still motoring along (despite what the consumer sentiment indicators say), employment is strong, there seems to be an unnerving willingness on behalf of investors to ‘buy the dip’ – but just when will we see capitulation? After the raft of rapid interest rate rises by central banks over the course of 2022, surely there must be some sort of reckoning? This thematic piece looks at various upstream (and downstream) indicators to identify exactly what we should be looking for in the months ahead to see if the global economy is truly taking a turn for the worse….
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