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Premium Investment Service (November 2023)

Our New Scenarios
This month we revisit our economic scenarios and update them for 2024. Certainly 2023 has surprised in terms of the resiliency of the labour market and by association, aggregate demand. So far, central bankers have mostly kept their collective heads and not gone for larger incremental increases in cash rates to reign inflation in – except for the Bank of England. Still, cash rates have now crept up to levels dangerously close to our 6% ‘Line in the Sand’ threshold for our ‘Terminal, Terminal’ scenario – see chart below…  


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